By Courtney Knight
Boston University News Service
This year’s WNBA Finals will be a southwestern showdown, as the Las Vegas Aces take on the Phoenix Mercury for the first time in championship history. Tip off for game one of a best-of-seven series is set for tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET at Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Though this is the first time these two teams will meet in the finals, neither is a stranger to postseason success. The Aces are eyeing its third title in just four years, while the Mercury are looking for redemption after falling to Chicago in the 2021 Finals. Phoenix might have three championships to its name, but the team will be without longtime star Diana Taurasi, who retired last season. The team is leaning on a retooled roster in hopes of bringing the trophy back to the Valley.
From a statistical standpoint, the matchup seems to be roughly even, but it is reasonable to give Vegas the slight edge. According to ESPN, the two teams are remarkably close in key metrics: Vegas leads by just 0.8 points in scoring average, 0.3 in net rating, and 0.4 in field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Mercury hold a small advantage in average three-pointers per game, outshooting Vegas by 0.3. The Aces also boast a defensive rating approximately 2 points better than Phoenix. Las Vegas went 3-1 against Phoenix in their regular-season matchups.
That said, as we’ve seen, statistics alone don’t guarantee a championship.
An important thing to consider in this series particularly is how the teams have fared leading up to and throughout the postseason.
It was a near miss for Vegas to make it to this point. They stormed into the playoffs riding a 16-game winning streak that came to a halt with a three-point loss to the Chicago Sky in game two of the first round. In the decisive game three, Vegas held on for a razor-thin 74–73 win to punch their ticket to the semifinals.
Their best-of-five series with the Indiana Fever also went down to the wire, ending with a dramatic game five overtime thriller. Despite missing key players Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham due to injury, the Fever mounted an impressive comeback from a near double-digit deficit late in the game. But the Aces’ Chelsea Gray, with help from Jewell Lloyd, stepped up in the extra period to save the day and Vegas prevailed with a 107-98 win.
Alongside Gray and Lloyd, the Aces also have a potential X-factor in three-time league MVP and 2023 Finals MVP A’ja Wilson. Wilson has recorded eight career 30-point playoff games and played a pivotal role in the Aces’ back-to-back championships.
Meanwhile, the Mercury appear to be hitting their stride in the playoffs. Entering the season as underdogs, Phoenix faced a major challenge. In addition to losing Taurasi, Phoenix retained only two players from its 2024 roster. One of them, Kahleah Copper, missed significant time due to injury. With the old guard all but gone, it was uncertain whether the team could successfully blend rookies, new additions, and triple-double star Alyssa Thomas into a winning formula.
Despite this, Phoenix entered the playoffs as the No. 4 seed and faced off against the reigning champions, the New York Liberty. After dropping the first game, the Mercury rallied to win the next two and take the series.
In a similar fashion, Phoenix then matched up against the No. 1 seeded and favored Minnesota Lynx. Despite a 13-point loss in game one, the Mercury bounced back to win the series. The Minnesota series was historic, marked by Phoenix’s dominance in the fourth quarter of the final three games. Notably, in game two, they overcame a 20-point deficit to tie the record for the largest road comeback in WNBA playoff history.
As the WNBA’s 29th season comes to a close, two teams with unfinished business meet on the biggest stage of women’s professional basketball. Whether it’s Vegas reclaiming its championship after falling short last season, or Phoenix completing an unexpected postseason run, this WNBA Finals is poised to deliver a matchup fans won’t soon forget.
The Finals broadcast will alternate between ABC and ESPN, with live streaming available on ESPN.com and the ESPN app. Don’t miss a moment of the action as these teams battle for the championship.
