New season, no surprises: Don’t expect many twists at the end of this NBA season

Jayson Tatum holds the Larry O’Brien trophy at the Boston Celtics Championship Parade in June 2024. Photo Courtesy of Brandon Wu.

By Harry Gustafson

Boston University News Service

The 2024-25 NBA season is underway, but anyone hoping for big surprises or changes from last year shouldn’t hold their breath. Despite a few blockbuster trades and roster reshuffling around the league, there’s one team that decided they are happy with their options. 

That’s the Boston Celtics, who comfortably handled their business last year on the way to their 18th NBA Championship. In the season opener against the New York Knicks, the Celtics lifted a brand new championship banner to the rafters of TD Garden. Once the game started, they picked up right where they left off in June: a double-digit win generated from a historic shooting performance. That’s not hyperbole; on opening night, the Celtics made 29 three pointers, tying an NBA record. 

This is a bad omen for the new-look Knicks. The past few seasons have seen gradual improvement from Tom Thibodeau’s team, led by guard Jalen Brunson who has emerged as an elite level talent. They cashed in a lot this offseason in an effort to build on a team that seemed primed last season for a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals until injuries derailed their plans. First, they traded for wing Mikal Bridges, sending five future first-round draft picks across the East River to the Brooklyn Nets. Then, a few weeks before the season started, they let forward Julius Randle and guard Donte Divincenzo head to the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for center Karl-Anthony Towns, a trade that should benefit both organizations. 

While these two new big pieces may need to acclimate to life at Madison Square Garden, will they be enough to give the Celtics concern in the Eastern Conference? The season opener does make it seem like that’s the case, but it’s a long season. Yes, the Knicks have their best roster in years, maybe since the Patrick Ewing era of the 90s when they made two appearances in the NBA Finals. 

But there are still a lot of questions surrounding this unproven squad, especially in terms of their roster depth. Towns is coming off one of his best seasons, but can he manage as the lone big in a high energy offense? Can he make the difference while the team waits for Mitchell Robinson to return from a long-term injury? Finding a manageable rotation will be key for the Knicks, despite coach Thibodeau’s habit of playing his core players over 40 minutes per game. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. Photo Courtesy of Luke Hales/Getty Images.

If the Knicks can’t catch up to the Celtics in the East, is there anyone who can? “Outlook unlikely,” as a magic eight ball would say. It won’t be the Milwaukee Bucks as long as Doc Rivers is head coach. After starting last season with a superb record of 30-13 under rookie coach Adrian Griffin, the Bucks parted ways with Griffin in favor of bringing in Rivers. They finished the year with an 18-19 record, slipping down the standings and eventually losing in the first round of the playoffs to a fiery Indiana Pacers squad. Yes, all-NBA forward Giannis Antetokounmpo missed that playoff series due to injury, but it’s hard to imagine the Bucks fate being much different in the long run with Rivers at the helm. 

If the Bucks spent this offseason working out a more viable system that can continue to utilize Antetokounmpo’s unstoppable presence at the rim, with the lethal range shooters like Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton provide, then the Bucks can definitely improve on a disappointing 2024. 

Though a few weeks into the season, Milwaukee is sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference at 7-9. To make things worse, it looks like it’s just a game of wait-and-see to find out who will leave first: Doc Rivers or Giannis. If it’s Doc, the team can find a replacement and figure themselves out. If it’s Giannis, the team is out their franchise player. Milwaukee’s run as a title contender might be nearing its end. 

Each offseason, there’s hype around the Philadelphia 76ers, but they always seem to fall short of those expectations. Center Joel Embiid is without a doubt an elite level scorer, but after nine seasons in the league, he’s never made the Conference Finals and carries a losing playoff record. His health is also a major question mark, having dealt with several injuries over the years. He played less than half of the Sixers’ regular season games last year. 

The emergence of guard Tyrese Maxey as a potentially elite-level player will give Philly fans some hope. The big offseason acquisition of Paul George also provides some firepower on the wing, but George has his own history of injury troubles. 

To start the season, both George and Embiid will be working off injuries. The team has even confirmed that the duo will not play in back-to-back games this year, in an effort to keep them fresh come playoff time. Don’t expect the Sixers to make much noise in the postseason, especially if their 3-12 start to the season without Embiid and George is indicative of how they play without their two superstars. 

Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat. Photo Courtesy of Duane Burleson/AP.

The Miami Heat look to be in decline after two finals berths in the past 5 years and a tendency to be a thorn in Boston’s side. The South Beach squad will definitely make the playoffs, but, unless Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro play at an elite level this season and Jimmy Butler’s age doesn’t start to show, then the Heat probably won’t stand as a championship contender.

If any teams in the East can knock the Celtics off their perch, then it’s probably one of the sleepers with energetic young cores. Paolo Banchero from the Orlando Magic looks like a future MVP, especially early into the new season. 

Although they were swept by the Celtics in last year’s playoffs, the Cleveland Cavaliers have taken huge leaps in the past few years.  The trio of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley will give defenses around the league a few nightmares. To start the new season, the Cavs have the best record in the league at 16-1. As the season goes on, this doesn’t look like a fluke. The Cavaliers are legitimate contenders for the first time since Lebron James led them to a championship in 2016. 

On November 20, the Cavs and Celtics met for the first time in an anticipated matchup. During the first half, the Celtics held a comfortable double-digit lead. The Cavs fought back in the second half, cutting the deficit within a few points. At the end of the night, however, the Celtics held on for a 120-117 win, due in part to Jayson Tatum’s 33 point performance. 

The Indiana Pacers, led by emerging star guard Tyrese Haliburton, gave the Celtics quite a fight with their high-octane offense, despite also getting swept by the eventual champs in the Conference Finals. If teams can learn from that series, then they can find ways to beat the Celtics. 

The best odds of dethroning the Celtics lie in the Western Conference, where last year’s conference champion Dallas Mavericks will look to build on a team that features one of the best offensive backcourt duos of all time in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The addition of Klay Thompson adds more three point firepower to Dallas’s offense, but it fails to address the defensive liabilities that led to the Mavs falling short of the Celtics over five games in the Finals. While Dallas made a great run through the Western Conference playoffs, they aren’t necessarily favorites for a repeat finals berth.

Before the Celtics won the championship, the Denver Nuggets sat on the throne. Led by star center Nikola Jokić, the Nugs fell short in last year’s Conference Semifinals, but they still have all the firepower needed to make a deep run come Spring. Jokić has Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and veteran Russell Westbrook in support. The Nuggets were also the only team that didn’t lose against Boston in the regular season last year, which bodes well for Denver in a potential finals matchup. 

One of the biggest surprises of last season was the resurgence of the Minnesota Timberwolves. On paper, the T-Wolves look like they can get even better. While losing Karl-Anthony Towns will affect their play style – Towns is a highly effective floor-spacing big – the additions of Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle will do more than soften the blow. Plus, with Naz Reid coming off the bench, they still have a big who can stretch defenses, allowing room for emerging superstar Anthony Edwards to lay waste to defenses. The Timberwolves didn’t have the firepower in the Western Conference Finals to keep up with the Mavericks backcourt, but DiVincenzo can help with clutch time three point scoring. 

The third main contender in the Western Conference – and maybe the best equipped team to compete with Boston over the next few years – is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Boasting a young, energetic squad that plays hard on both ends of the court, OKC is on their way to their first finals berth since Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden fell short to the Miami Heat in 2012. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is almost guaranteed to score 30 points per game. Chet Holmgren fits the mold of the new big man: good defensive instincts around the rim, the ability to stretch the floor, and an adept ball handler you can run your offense through to enable other teammates. Offloading Josh Giddey to the Chicago Bulls in exchange for Alex Caruso gives them a more reliable option at guard, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Even if it’s not this season, we’ll be seeing the Thunder in the NBA Finals very soon. 

While the Los Angeles Lakers have a great story in LeBron James and his son Bronny becoming the first father-son duo to play together in the league, it would nonetheless be a surprise to see them contending for a championship this year. The key to the Lakers’ success will always be the health of Anthony Davis. 

When fit to play, Davis is one of the most dangerous bigs in the NBA, but he’s a perennial guest on the injury list. If James can lead the team to a good position in the regular season and Davis can be healthy for the playoffs, the Lakers will want to capitalize on the time they have left with one of the greatest players of all time. 

Another interesting aspect to the season will continue to be the development of the In Season Tournament, in which James and the Lakers took home the inaugural prize last season. While the point differential ranking format was a little confusing, it made for some exciting games. It wasn’t enough for a team to simply win a game; they had to score a certain amount of points if they were to make the next round. That forces teams to be a little less conservative offensively if they hope to compete. It will be interesting to see if the tournament continues to add a little more edge to the beginning of the season. For some of these close and not-so-close contenders, it may be the best chance of winning some silverware this season. 

Overall, the NBA has been a pretty thrilling watch over the last few years, as the league tries to expand its global reach and make the game more entertaining.  While foul calls and game stoppages have been controversial, the push to bring out more high energy offensive play has been exciting. The development of this Celtics team under Joe Mazzula has a big part to play in that. They are constantly moving the ball around and looking for the extra pass. This stretches defenses thin and leads to open threes, and the Celtics have made it clear that the three ball is the centerpiece of their offense. 

While a lot of critics, pundits and fans of other teams claimed the Celtics had an easy run in the playoffs – most of the East’s superstars were injured – the reality is this Celtics lineup is just incredibly good at basketball. It is difficult to imagine any other NBA team being able to come up with enough firepower to defeat them in a seven game series. In the buildup to the season, the Celtics made it clear that they are not done making the statement they made last season. Since they’re rolling back mostly the same lineup, they definitely have the depth to repeat. 

Jayson Tatum finally brushed off the criticism that he isn’t an elite player,and at 27 years old is still reaching his peak. He won his championship, and he has responded to criticism by starting the new season with MVP-caliber play off an improved shooting style. Make no mistake: Tatum is the real deal.

Then there’s Jaylen Brown, who stepped up as the vocal leader the team was lacking after trading away Marcus Smart in the 2023 offseason. Brown’s incredible play through the playoffs at both ends of the floor earned him the MVP award in both the Conference Finals and Finals. He’s brushed off his own share of criticism, like claims that he couldn’t use his left hand and annual calls for him to be traded. 

When he was drafted by the Celtics, he boldly stated, “I’m gonna go to war for this city.” He made good on that claim, cementing himself in the history of the NBA’s most successful franchise and most demanding fanbase. Brown and Tatum have developed into one of the best duos in the league and simply make the game fun to watch. 

Beyond Tatum and Brown, the Celtics are loaded with two-way options. Guards Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are efficient, hard-working role players that will lock up any backcourt on the perimeter. Veteran Al Horford continues to be a critical presence in the lineup, despite his declining numbers at 38 years old. He’s been a stalwart figure in the league since arriving in the league almost twenty years ago, and since getting his first taste of a championship last year, he’s still on the hunt for more. 

Then there’s Kristaps Porzingis, who arrived in Boston last year as a result of the Marcus Smart trade. While the Celtics proved in the playoffs that they don’t really need him, he adds an unstoppable dynamic at the center position. An adept scorer from any range, the 7’3” player showed in limited minutes during the Finals that when healthy, he makes the Celtics unplayable. Boston will be hoping for a healthy recovery so they can get back to firing on all cylinders, but seem to be okay without Porzingis to start the year, with a 13-3 start. 

If the Celtics play like they did last season, then the 2024-25 NBA Finals are theirs to lose. 

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