Does my vote matter? BU students want to “have a say”

November 24, 2024
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by BU News Service
Swing state graphic Courtesy of The Washington Post.

By Irene Anastasiadis and Zichang Liu

Boston University News Service

Swing states are always critical in any presidential election and change over time. This year’s swing states that would make or break this election were: North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. Pennsylvania has the most electoral college votes out of the seven swing states, making it a crucial state in this election. 

A swing state is defined as “a U.S. state in which Republican and Democratic candidates have similar levels of support and which is considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections,” according to Merriam-Webster Dictionary.

According to NPR, President Joe Biden’s slim win in six swing states helped him secure the presidency in 2020. For example, Biden won Arizona by a little over 10,000 votes.

In every presidential election, there have been key states to monitor on whether they will swing blue or red. Their electoral college votes are critical in reaching the magic number: 270. Unlike, “spectator states” which already seem to lean a certain way and are predicted to remain unchanging after the polls. 

A study by the National Popular Vote released a memo in 2020 about past elections. To summarize, it said that voter turnout in battleground states was “substantially higher” than in spectator states. 

  • In 2020, voter turnout in the 12 battleground states was 70.99%. Voter turnout in the remaining 39 states was 66.47%. 
  • In 2016, voter turnout in the 12 battleground states was 66.7%. Voter turnout in the remaining 39 states was 60.2%. 
  • In 2012, voter turnout in the 12 battleground states was 65.3%. Voter turnout in the remaining 39 states was 56.2%.
  • In 2008, voter turnout in 14 battleground states was 66.4%. Voter turnout in the remaining 37 states was 60.7%.

The Boston University News Service investigates the impact swing state votes have on voter turnout nationally. We spoke to BU student voters across campus about their opinions on swing state and non-swing state voter impact before the election results and thoughts about swing state outcome post-election day.

Victoria Trin, 19, is a sophomore from Virginia studying political science at BU. Virginia is not a swing state this year; however, for decades from the 1950s to the early 2000s, it has been a red state. In the last four presidential elections, the Democratic party has won Virginia.

Trin believes swing state voters have more impact, especially in presidential elections. Trin said that every vote matters regardless of the state you’re from, but can “really determine the electoral votes from one vote or two votes per person, so it really does matter for swing state voters.”

Going to school in Boston required Trin to send an absentee ballot.

Trin said absentee voting needs a bit more work to make it a “smooth” process. However, she said this didn’t discourage her from voting because she is “into politics” and believes it is “our civic duty to vote.” 

Trin said that her friends at home choose not to vote because they don’t have confidence in either candidate. Although they have the same beliefs, Trin said her friends don’t believe strongly enough to vote which adds to her stress. 

The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts (CIRCLE), a non-partisan, independent research organization focused on youth civic engagement conducted research comparing youth turnout rates over the previous election years. The research estimated that 42% of young voters aged 18-29 cast ballots during the 2024 election, lower than the 2020 election with at least a 52% participation rate.

The study also estimates that youth ages 18-29 in battleground swing states show a higher voting rate with 50% on aggregate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Lydia Velasquez, 22, a graduate student studying advertising, said she was feeling hopeful for the future of the country on election day. 

“After hearing the results, I hope people are peaceful and work towards a better country together,” Velasquez said. 

Velasquez said her vote as a non-swing state voter is impactful, but she also expressed some doubt about the extent of that impact coming from a conservative state.

“Does my vote even really count?,” Velasquez said.

Unfortunately, Velasquez said she didn’t register in time; she was in the process of moving and had other personal stressors. Velasquez said she comes from a family of immigrants who are currently not allowed to vote. She is not used to voting because those around her don’t vote. In hindsight, Velasquez said she wishes she had put time aside to register and vote. 

The students BUNS spoke to believe everyone should vote no matter what state they are from. However, they also acknowledge the critical impact of swing state voters in presidential elections.

The remaining two swing states, Nevada and Arizona, were recently called. President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican Party swept all seven swing states in this 2024 presidential election. 

Trump flipped Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, in 2020, the Democratic party won all these states. According to the polls, Nevada and Arizona also flipped red. Politico’s live results tracking states that Trump has received 50.6% of the votes in Nevada compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 47.5% and 52.3% in Arizona compared to 46.6%.

North Carolina is the state that held Republican in this election, meaning Trump won this state in the 2020 and 2024 elections.

Michael Goldman, a former political consultant and BU alum, gave a different perspective on the election outcome, specifically the swing state results. 

“The normal pattern is once a race breaks, it breaks everywhere the same way so if [Harris] had won the two-point race, she would have won all seven. The surprise would have been if it was four to three [because] it almost always breaks in one direction,” Goldman said about Trump’s swing state sweep. 

Goldman said that many believed most young voters were more likely to vote for Harris, but that wasn’t the case. “Bro Voters,” Goldman said, carried Trump across the finish line. Appearances on Joe Rogan’s and Theo Von’s podcasts exposed him to this demographic and appealed to them even more. According to CIRCLE, young white men ages 18-29 voted 63% for Trump and 35% for Harris. 

“A campaign is made up of a mosaic of voters,” Goldman said. “Every piece determines the outcome.” Goldman said that every election cycle will be different and the way the younger population votes will change. 

Even in the states Harris won, there was still a slight red shift. Massachusetts is a great example of this: Although Massachusetts elected Harris, Trump received more voters here compared to the last time, Goldman said.

“When the future scares voters, they vote the past,” Goldman said. He described the uniqueness of Trump’s campaign versus Harris’s. This election heavily relied on two kinds of ideologies; moving forward or going back. America chose the latter. Whether people like or dislike Trump, Goldman said that people believed he understood them and their immediate needs and Trump played into that well.

BUNS reporters also talked to students around campus after the election, including students from Florida, New York and Pennsylvania.

Quintos began monitoring the election since Harris received the democratic nomination in August. He was “cautiously optimistic” that Harris would win, referencing Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 when people expected her to win and Biden’s close 2020 win. Quintos said he wasn’t as surprised about the swing state’s outcome as he was about the popular vote. 

“People actually really wanted him as president,” Quintos said. 

Quintos agreed with a video he saw that said Democrats focus enough on the “bread and butter issues” that people are struggling with, such as the cost of living. He said that celebrity endorsements at rallies set the wrong message, creating a more elitist image for the democratic party, while Trump tried appealing to the everyday person. 

Only a random handful of BU students were willing to share their opinions and faces with the rest of the university. These students come from different backgrounds, states and majors and offer varying perspectives about a critical component of any U.S. presidential election: swing states. 

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